AGP Executive Report

World Cup Build-Up: A star-studded managerial lineup is set for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with high-profile coaches and ex-Premier League figures heading to North America as teams prepare to prove themselves on the pitch. Bilateral Trade & Industry: Deputy President Paul Mashatile met India’s President Droupadi Murmu in New Delhi, pushing cooperation in technology, pharmaceuticals, energy, skilling and MSMEs—while also meeting Indian counterparts on trade, investment and defence. Jobs & Infrastructure Push: Ramaphosa flagged youth unemployment as a major threat, alongside a R1-trillion three-year plan for roads, dams, schools, hospitals and energy/logistics infrastructure. Retail Competition: Amazon launched Prime in South Africa (R59/month or R399/year), bundling free delivery with Prime Video and gaming—raising the stakes in the e-commerce battle with Takealot. Procurement & SMEs: Nigeria’s procurement reforms show how affirmative contracting can expand SME participation in public tenders. Competition Watchdog: The Competition Commission referred Adcock Ingram Critical Care to the Tribunal over alleged excessive pricing in renal replacement therapy products. Food Systems: “Farm-to-table” is being reframed as a survival strategy for SA’s food system amid access and supply-chain pressures. Business Climate: South Africa’s private sector contracted in May, with fuel costs and Middle East uncertainty weighing on demand and confidence. Agriculture Policy: Grain SA moves toward legal action over delayed implementation of a revised wheat tariff meant to protect local producers. Energy & Climate: SANEA rebranded to drive inclusive energy growth as the sector’s transition accelerates. Finance & Risk: S&P kept SA ratings steady, but warned oil risks could pressure inflation and consumer spending.

Xenophobia & Migration Crackdown: President Cyril Ramaphosa vowed tougher action on illegal immigration as anti-foreigner protests spread, while Reuters reported deaths of Mozambican citizens in Mossel Bay amid violence. Labour Market Reform: The Department of Employment and Labour outlined a new labour market enforcement and migration policy to prioritise South Africans for jobs, with stricter penalties for employers hiring undocumented foreign nationals. Energy & Municipal Accountability: Eskom moved to clear a forensic investigations backlog as municipal debt and governance failures continue to bite, while Johannesburg’s audit regression was linked to weak controls and major electricity and water losses. Business Climate: South Africa’s business confidence slipped as Middle East conflict pushed oil prices higher, feeding inflation fears and rate-hike expectations. Rates & Inflation: SARB governor Lesetja Kganyago defended the latest rate hike ahead of full fuel-price effects, warning against entrenched inflation expectations. Agriculture & FMD: A Gauteng foot-and-mouth disease motion failed in the legislature, leaving farmers waiting on clearer vaccine distribution and biosecurity accountability. World Cup Commerce: Amazon Prime launched in South Africa, bundling delivery, video and cloud gaming, with Prime Day set for late June. Transport & Trade: South Africa’s new vehicle sales hit a 13-year high in May despite cost pressures, signalling demand resilience. Climate Litigation: A landmark African Court climate case seeks guidance on states’ duties to protect people from climate harms.

Foot-and-mouth disease response: South Africa says it has procured 13.5m FMD vaccine doses since February and vaccinated just under 4.4m animals by 28 May, with 3.5m more doses arriving last week and SAHPRA approving an additional 14m-dose pipeline to support boosters. Fuel costs: Mineral and Petroleum Resources announced June fuel price adjustments effective 3 June, citing Brent crude moves and changes in international product prices. Plastics push: The SA Plastics Pact 2030 targets were launched, aiming to tackle waste from a linear economy through partnerships across government, business and civil society. HIV/TB funding drive: Deputy President Paul Mashatile will meet private-sector captains under SANAC to close funding gaps for the NSP for HIV, TB and STIs via sustainable public-private financing. Transport compliance in Gauteng: MEC Kedibone Diale-Tlabela will hand over operating licences to minibus taxi and scholar transport operators to improve safety and accountability. Industry and jobs: IOL plans a major recruitment drive tied to a R200m expansion programme, while Orion S.A. released its 2025 sustainability report highlighting waste reduction and electrification-linked materials. Business confidence and growth: Commentary and updates point to pressure on sentiment from global tensions and higher fuel costs, alongside ongoing fiscal credibility messaging. Food security education: Young South Africans are being taught aquaponics to support food security, using fish-plant systems that reduce reliance on fertilisers and land. Conservation: KZN conservationists marked 20 years of bearded vulture protection, warning the species still faces poisoning, persecution and habitat threats. Mobility and infrastructure: Telkom connects more homes to fibre, and energy/industrial intelligence coverage continues to track how data and AI are being used to improve operations.

Diamond Sector Shock: Petra Diamonds put its Finsch mine into business rescue, blaming a weak diamond market and a stronger rand as lab-grown gems keep squeezing natural prices. Water Governance: South Africa’s 2026 National Water Amendment Bill moves through Parliament, with experts warning it could reshape water rights and hit agriculture and industry, including a proposed ban on private water trading. Fuel Costs: June fuel outlook is mixed—petrol likely to rise again (around R1.05/litre), while diesel could drop (up to about R3.60/litre depending on grade), though levies may complicate relief. Telecom Earnings: Telkom reported a 27.5% profit jump and higher dividends, driven by data growth and progress in its fibre transition. City Finance: Johannesburg council approved the R97.1b 2026/27 budget, but commentary continues to flag deep financial strain and Eskom-linked risks. Transport Safety Tech: CODETA launched a cashless taxi pilot using dedicated cards and route-based fare deductions, aiming to cut robberies and improve commuter safety. Labour & Jobs: Labour Minister Nomakhosazana Meth pushed tougher enforcement and youth jobs measures amid a “missing jobs crisis.” Energy & Industry: EU launched investment roadshows in South Africa targeting critical minerals and clean energy projects. Xenophobia Fallout: Mozambique says five citizens were killed in South Africa-linked xenophobic attacks, with repatriation underway. Legal Fight at Sea: Small-scale fishers challenge a West Coast seismic survey approval in court, arguing assessments missed cumulative impacts.

Ferrochrome Rescue: Nersa approved discounted electricity tariffs for ferrochrome smelters, cutting power costs by over 50% and prompting Glencore-Merafe to halt up to 1,500 job cuts. Fuel Watch: Petrol 93 and 95 rise by R1.43/litre from June 3, while diesel and paraffin drop, easing pressure for some logistics and farm users. Vehicle Demand: South Africa’s new-vehicle market posted its strongest May since 2013, up 12.8% to 51,071 units, with buyers increasingly value-driven on affordability and total cost of ownership. Water Stress: New data shows more than half of households face systematic water shortages, with ageing infrastructure and maintenance backlogs driving “dry-tap” disruptions. Agri Under Pressure: Iran-linked disruptions are pushing diesel and fertiliser costs higher, squeezing wheat farmers and threatening output. Industrial Maintenance: Local upgrades in lubrication systems and laser cladding promise longer equipment life and less downtime across sugar mills and hydraulic cylinders. Trade & Food: USMEF urges the US to push AGOA implementation after complaints about import barriers to US beef and pork, naming South Africa among key markets. Livestock Health: South Africa’s foot-and-mouth vaccination drive has reached nearly 4.4m animals after procuring 13.5m doses. Power Market Reform: Southern Africa’s shift toward independent transmission providers is gaining momentum, with South Africa leading the framework.

Energy & Industry Dealmaking: Africa Energy Forum 2026 returns in Cape Town (16–19 June) with a focus on transmission, mining corridors, baseload power and renewables meant to anchor industrial growth. Renewables Transformation: SAWEA backs 20 women in the 2026 MDP and calls for intentional transformation as wind/solar still leave women underrepresented in engineering and leadership. Electricity Market Tech: Mezzanine and Open Access Energy sign a reseller deal to push Virtual Wheeling across South Africa’s renewable market via Energypro. Tariffs Under Scrutiny: Meridian Economics challenges Nersa’s approval of 54% electricity tariff relief for chrome producers, warning the process could cost about R16.6bn. Property Under Pressure: With rates still high, the property sector warns higher interest costs could slow housing delivery and jobs. Jobs Snapshot: Stats SA reports unemployment rising to 32.7% in Q1 2026, with youth unemployment at 45.8%. Fuel Watch: June fuel price outlook points to petrol likely up and diesel down, with tax relief phasing out. Public Finance & Credit: S&P affirms SA’s ratings with a positive outlook, citing reform momentum in electricity and logistics. Security & Compliance: Business Day flags illegal number plates being sold quickly in Joburg, undermining vehicle registration integrity. Health & Addiction: Sahpra moves toward tighter codeine controls as dependence grows, while TB prevention gets linked to tackling tobacco and nicotine addiction. Arts Funding Strain: Arts festivals face collapse after funding cuts and board dissolution at the National Arts Council.

Xenophobia & Human Rights: The Tijjaniya Muslim Movement of Ghana says South Africa is breaching binding international law by failing to prevent and prosecute escalating xenophobic attacks on migrants, citing treaty obligations to protect life and equal protection. Energy Regulation: Nersa has finalised approvals for electricity tariff applications from all 176 licensed municipal and private distributors after a deadline extension, with relief and pricing changes continuing to ripple through industry. Mining & Power Costs: Nersa approved an interim discounted power tariff for ferrochrome producers Samancor Chrome and the Glencore-Merafe JV, aimed at keeping high-cost smelters operating amid China-driven competition. Agriculture & Flood Damage: The table grape industry is seeking disaster relief after Western Cape floods damaged vineyards and infrastructure, with some growers reporting losses up to R1.2m/ha. Logistics & Fuel Pressure: A week-ahead focus highlights fuel price adjustments tied to Middle East conflict, plus business sentiment signals from the Absa manufacturing PMI. Security & Illegal Mining: SAPS and SANDF seized 800+ live rounds in Gauteng operations tied to illegal mining and gang violence, arresting 36 suspects. Court & Contracts: A court challenge over wildfire-fighting programme management has been dismissed, clearing the way for a service-level agreement with Tefla. Social Protection: Sassa beneficiaries are urged to replace expiring gold cards with Postbank’s black card before 31 August to avoid grant access disruption.

Cross-Border Trade & Logistics: Botswana says it will keep pushing deeper SADC ties to make it easier for businesses to operate across borders, streamline cross-border logistics and cut non-tariff barriers as it opens its Northern Trade Fair in Francistown. Local Business Formalisation: Government says the R500m Spaza Shop Support Fund has approved R179.6m for 2,369 spaza shops, but compliance and licensing still block many applicants. Industrial Competitiveness: The AfDB’s African Industrialisation Index shows Morocco overtaking South Africa as Africa’s leading industrial economy, citing stronger industrial policy, export diversification and value-chain integration. Energy & Industry Pressure: South Africa’s economy is feeling the squeeze from the Middle East war and higher costs, with households cutting fuel and spending as the SARB lifts rates and inflation bites. Agriculture Health: Agriculture received another 3.5m foot-and-mouth disease vaccine doses, bringing totals to 13.5m after a court ruling allowed farmers to buy their own vaccines. Mining & Finance: Petra Diamonds has placed its Finsch mine into business rescue and is considering cost cuts as weak diamond demand and a stronger rand erode liquidity. Tech & Trade Diplomacy: Deputy President Mashatile and India’s partners discussed technology, trade and investment collaboration, while SA also continues rolling out school media-lab tech to expand access to learning tools.

Geopolitics & Energy: Rwanda’s nuclear cooperation deal with Russia signals a wider shift in Africa’s power map, with Kigali pushing nuclear medicine, training and possible small modular reactor research. Consumer Protection: South Africa’s updated Consumer Protection Act rules tighten the screws on direct marketers, including mandatory opt-out registration and tougher NCC enforcement. Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank raised the repo rate to 7% and warned of a high-inflation, low-growth mix under scenarios like Middle East shocks, El Niño and food/fuel pressure. Retail & FMCG: Pick n Pay is refocusing on fresh food plus baby, beauty and pets to close category gaps, while Dis-Chem eyes up to 500 TLC franchise pharmacies. Industry & Jobs: Furniture manufacturing shows stabilisation, but leaders say survival isn’t enough—growth needs policy support and investment. Power & Governance: Eskom is calling in external forensic specialists to clear a backlog of fraud and corruption cases. Cross-border Trade: BRICS industrial cooperation is leaning into green development and smart manufacturing, with South African firms seeking partnerships.

Border Security & Drugs: South Africa’s Border Management Authority says it disrupted a mandrax (ABBA) smuggling syndicate at Beitbridge, with three suspects arrested after a truck was scanned and dismantled for hours; the case was later postponed and valuation questions were raised. Municipal Power Upgrade: Johannesburg secured a R3.8bn KfW loan to modernise its electricity network, including substations, smart meters and renewable projects. Retail & Consumer Pressure: SPAR warned its interim earnings could drop 50%-60% as margins shrink, with KZN operations again a key drag. E-commerce Shift: A new consumer report finds online shopping is now mainstream, with many shoppers spending thousands monthly and turning to both local and international platforms. Food Security Focus (SADC): SADC ministers urged faster cooperation to build resilient regional food systems as input costs and supply-chain shocks bite. Industry Expansion: Alvarez & Marsal opened its first African office in Cape Town, targeting infrastructure, energy and mining investment flows. Transport Disruption Watch (KZN): Police in KZN said they’ve received no formal notice for a planned truck protest, warning against violence and illegal disruption. Agriculture Science: Free State researchers are studying soil roundworms to track ecosystem health and climate change impacts. Education & Skills: Akademia bought 105 hectares in Paarl for a new Afrikaans university campus, aiming for a residential student hub. Energy-Heavy Industry: Eskom confirmed Nersa approved an amended pricing framework for ferrochrome smelters, including a concessionary interim arrangement.

Monetary Policy Shock: The SARB lifted the repo rate by 25 bps to 7%, warning that Middle East-driven fuel and food pressures, El Niño risks and second-round inflation effects could mean more hikes—raising prime to 10.5% and tightening household budgets. Food Security Watch: Grain SA-linked concerns are sharpening as the Reserve Bank flags a possible “food shock”, with farmers facing higher input costs and consumers already squeezed. Energy & Infrastructure: Transnet TNPA signed a R22bn, 25-year LNG terminal deal at Port of Ngqura with Ukwanda LNG, targeting full operations by 2035 and supporting gas-to-power and industrial demand. Logistics & Governance: Cape Town’s outlook was upgraded to positive by Moody’s, while Nelson Mandela Bay needs about R31bn to stabilise failing water, sewerage, roads and debt. Healthcare & Regulation: Life Healthcare leaned on diagnostics and renal growth to offset funding headwinds, while SAHPRA and SAPC raided a Pretoria compounding pharmacy over unregistered compounded GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. Digital & Marketing: Rogerwilco won Smarties awards for AI-driven GEO, signalling how brands are adapting to AI search discovery. Cross-Border Reality: Ngwenya Border Post saw heavy traffic ahead of Eswatini’s Bushfire Festival, with telecoms selling SIMs to festival-goers.

Monetary Policy Shock: The South African Reserve Bank raised the repo rate by 25 bps to 7%—first hike since 2023—citing Middle East-driven oil risks, higher fuel and food pressures, and El Niño-linked food uncertainty, with prime expected to move to 10.5% and households feeling the squeeze. Road Funding Pressure: Transport Minister Barbara Creecy says government is exploring a new Road Accident Fund contribution tied to vehicle licence renewals, as the RAF faces sustainability concerns and EVs erode fuel-levy income. Border Crime Crackdown: Border Management Authority officials seized nearly R1bn of methaqualone (“ABBA”) at Beitbridge from Malawi, arresting three suspects and highlighting organised syndicates’ cross-border reach. Research & Skills Push: South Africa announced 41 new research chairs to expand capacity at historically disadvantaged institutions, while Kenya’s Egerton University launched a regenerative agriculture centre to close research-to-policy and farm-implementation gaps. Energy Transition in Practice: Toyota, DSTI and HySA handed over a locally developed mobile hydrogen refuelling station at NWU, and Yellow Door Energy trained Alexandra youth for solar installation and battery systems. Industry Tech & Trade: ASP Isotopes restarted the first 18 stages of its Silicon-28 enrichment facility in Pretoria, targeting commercial shipments in Q3, while Cameroon’s Africa Trade Accelerator export readiness programme kicked off in Douala.

Monetary Policy Shock: South Africans brace for a SARB rate hike after April inflation hit a 19-month high, with economists expecting another 25 bps move that will squeeze already strained household budgets and property affordability. Fuel Cost Relief Watch: June could bring some relief at the pump, but petrol tax relief is ending, keeping pressure on overall living costs. City Power Fallout: Johannesburg’s finances remain under the microscope as ActionSA attacks a proposed R3.8bn KfW loan for City Power, warning residents face a long, unaffordable repayment burden amid Eskom arrears and looming disconnections. Border Security Crackdown: Beitbridge border authorities intercepted a truck from Malawi carrying about 713kg of mandrax precursor methaqualone worth nearly R1bn, with three suspects arrested. Wireless Competition Boost: Icasa gazetted final “innovation spectrum” rules, opening lower 6GHz licence-exempt access for wireless internet and private networks, a major win for non-mobile operators. Mining & Industry Signals: West Wits reports a breakthrough at Qala Shallows that should speed ramp-up into higher-grade production, while Afrimat’s results point to a cautious industrial-policy-driven turnaround. Environment & Housing Policy: DFFE budget votes outline plans for biodiversity, climate adaptation and jobs, while Human Settlements pushes affordable housing delivery. Health & Care Debate: Experts call for preserving Africa’s traditional caregiving systems as institutional care expands, raising concerns for vulnerable communities. Lifestyle & Food: A quick butternut-and-feta egg cup recipe targets busy households with simple, protein-rich meal ideas.

Energy & Power: Eskom has broken ground on a R1.2bn, 75MW solar plant at Lethabo power station, aiming to generate about 147GWh a year and supply roughly 60,000 households, using the coal site’s existing grid connections to speed up rollout. Municipal Finance: Cape Town has reopened public participation on amendments to its 2026/27 “City of Hope” budget after a Western Cape High Court ruling forced changes to fixed water and sanitation charges, with comments running from 27 May to 10 June. Household Affordability: As the May MPC decision looms, analysts warn any rate hike will deepen an affordability squeeze already driven by fuel, electricity and logistics costs, while inflation has ticked up. Service Delivery & Infrastructure: Potholes and crumbling roads top reported complaints on the CityMender app, with water leaks and electricity faults next most common. Mining & Regulation: Minerals Council SA says engagement on the draft MPRDA bill could improve investor sentiment, as mining firms warn against “sandbagging” while government reworks the law. Regional Labour & Migration: Ghana has begun repatriation flights of citizens from South Africa amid xenophobic tensions, with about 800 expected to leave. Food Safety: Experts are calling for tighter safeguards in South Africa’s school nutrition programmes, citing hygiene, storage and monitoring gaps that could expose learners to preventable risks.

SARB Rate-Decision Pressure: Inflation has jumped to a 19-month high (4% in April), and economists are increasingly betting the SARB will lift rates this week—while fuel levy relief ends—raising the risk of a June “double blow” for already debt-stretched households. Fuel-Fix Reality Check: With petrol prices climbing, South Africans are changing routes, pooling errands, and leaning more on short-term borrowing to survive. Eskom vs Joburg: After a July 8 blackout threat over more than R5bn in Eskom debt, national government and the City of Johannesburg reached a provisional deal, with joint operations and a distribution revenue framework to keep power flowing. Property Market Shift: Buyers are rejecting overpriced homes as repayment calculations bite, pushing sellers to price realistically from day one. FMD Vaccine Court Win: A Pretoria ruling allows farmers to procure FMD vaccines lawfully from approved channels, challenging state delays. Conservation & Tourism: African Parks says it wants more local staffing and more tourists from its operating countries, backing training via a new Rwanda academy. Maritime Security: The IMO warns Somali piracy is back, with hijackings in the Gulf of Aden and western Indian Ocean.

AI Policy Reversal: South Africa’s AI framework has been delayed until January 2027 after fake citations in the draft sparked a credibility crisis, with the communications department admitting it missed the problems. Public Safety: New crime stats show domestic spaces are where violence hits hardest—half of reported rapes in the quarter happened at home. Ghost Workers Crackdown: Government is rolling out a biometric payroll verification system from 15 June to remove “ghost workers”, after alleged 2025 salary fraud cost taxpayers R3.9bn. Digital Economy Boost: Meta says its platforms are driving R16.5bn in annual value for South African SMEs, with AI expected to add a further R528bn to GDP. Energy & Jobs: Ramaphosa says R1.07tn will be spent on roads, energy and water over three years, but warns growth hasn’t yet translated into jobs. Music & Culture: Tyla adds two more AMAs wins for “CHANEL”, while Spotify doubles down on volume over price to grow Africa’s paid music base.